BCS Bowl Predictions: Pitt In, Cincy Out
November 25, 2009
After yet another ho-hum weekend of a forgettable college football season, it’s finally starting to get exciting.
All this noise about the BCS and the regular season isn’t just noise anymore.
Fraught with intriguing story lines, bitter rivalries, Monte Carlo-like revenge, and BCS-or-bust championship games, the next two weeks of college football with will feature some of the most compelling and meaningful games of the season.
Finally.
Three games in particular will feature a head-to-head battle for a BCS game. The winner will go on to play on the big stage, while the loser will likely be destined for “just-another” December Bowl. The games to watch are:
No.5 Cincinnati at No. 9 Pittsburgh
No. 16 Oregon State at No. 8 Oregon
No. 7 Georgia Tech vs. No. 18 Clemson
Not to mention the National Championship semi-final,otherwise knows as the SEC Championship Game, has yet to be played as well. Another intriguing story line. Another hate-filled, storybook SEC rivalry in the brewing.
Most likely, the winner of the SEC will go on to play for the crystal football in the national championship, while the loser spends the offseason explaining their loss to an Mountain West Conference team in New Orleans.
Here’s my take on where we stand now, and how the the rest of the season will play out up leading up to Selection Sunday.
What we know: Texas, Florida, Alabama, and Ohio State are locks for the BCS regardless of outcomes.
Most likely to clinch a BCS berth this week: TCU needs a win at home this week against 1-10 New Mexico.
Who is on the bubble for an at-large: Iowa, Penn State, Boise State, and Oklahoma State.
Who seems the least likely but still has an outside shot of getting in:
-Unranked Nebraska (Needs to upset Texas in the Big 12 title game.)
-No. 18 Clemson (Needs to beat Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game.)
-No. 19 Oregon State (Needs to beat rival Oregon at Autzen in the Civil War.)
What other key games will likely determine BCS berths:
-No.12 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
-Nevada at No. 6 Boise State
Who wins, who goes, and who gets left out:
Alabama over Florida: 19-14
The Florida Gators’ last minute touchdown drive falls short as the Tide’s dominant defense holds Tebow to 130 passing yards and 58 yards rushing. Mark Ingram strengthens his case for the Heisman with another clock-chewing 124 yard rushing performance.
Pitt over Cincinnati: 20-17
Pittsburgh exploits the suspect Cincinnati ground defense with their explosive running game.
Oregon over Oregon State: 37-31
The Ducks, who blocked the Beavers from the Rose Bowl last year, will stave off the Beavers once again, despite a 140 yard rushing performance from Jacquizz Rodgers.
Georgia Tech over Clemson: 28-24
Paul Johnson and the Yellow Jackets prove once again too much for Clemson despite the close game earlier at Georgia Tech, a game where the Jackets were aided by a phantom offensive holding call against Clemson late in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State: 24-20
Even though Zac Robinson returns to the field, Oklahoma stuns the Cowboys in Norman.
How will the BCS Bowl Selection play out:
BCS Title Game: Texas vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl: TCU vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State vs. Boise State
How they got there:
After losing Alabama to the BCS Title game, the Sugar Bowl will get the first replacement pick and will select the Gators.
The Fiesta Bowl will go next and replace Texas with Penn State, banking on the Joe Paterno entourage and draw of the Nitts strong base of traveling fans.
The Orange Bowl goes next and will choose Pittsburgh to face ACC tie-in Georgia Tech.
The Fiesta Bowl will follow up by selecting Boise State. A team that cut its teeth at the Fiesta Bowl and seems to travel well.
Leaving Mountain West TCU going to the Sugar Bowl.
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