Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants NFL Odds & Picks

November 19, 2009

The 5-4 Atlanta Falcons take on the 5-4 New York Giants in a crucial Week 11 NFC battle at Giants Stadium. Last week, the Falcons fell 28-19 to division rival Carolina while the Giants were idle. One would think the bye week would do the struggling Giants some good, but New York is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a bye week. The Giants and the Falcons last met in 2007 with the Giants outgaining Atlanta by over 200 yards on their way to a 31-10 victory. This series has been a tight one with the teams splitting the last eight meetings. Overall, Atlanta holds a slight 10-9 lead all-time. NFL odds makers have listed the New York Giants as a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 46.

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Atlanta may be the road team and the underdog, but history says the Falcons have the edge as the road team has won the last 12 meetings in this series. But for this trend to continue, the Falcons are going to need their franchise quarterback to snap out of it. Matt Ryan shocked the NFL with how well he played as a rookie. He picked up right where he left off early on, but has since hit a speed bump. Over the last five games, Ryan has thrown just seven touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions and is only completing 54.9 percent of his passes. The Falcons are a perfect 8-0 when Ryan has a passer rating of 100 or higher. If he plays well, Atlanta will have an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset.

What has happened to John Abraham? He was a machine in 2008, coming up with 16.5 sacks. He has not been the same force this season. Abraham has just 3.5 sacks and two of those came in Week 1. Getting pressure on Eli Manning will be a key ingredient to victory Sunday, and that means Abraham will need to get back on track. It is worth noting that the Falcons are an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. If you think Atlanta has what it takes to pull off the upset against the slumping Giants, bet the Falcons at +6.5 at BetUS.

If the Giants are going to end their four-game slide, the defense is going to have to step up. In the last four games, we have not seen the dominant pass rush we have become so accustomed to seeing in recent years. Come on Osi Umenyiora. Come on Justin Tuck. It’s time to have a game. The good news for the Giants defense is that Falcons running back Michael Turner is listed as doubtful this week with an ankle injury. That means that Atlanta will likely have to take to the air. Matt Ryan has struggled in recent weeks and we have seen what the Giants’ pass rush has done to opposing quarterbacks in the past. It is worth noting that the Giants are 11-3 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards per play under Coach Coughlin. If you like New York to finally end its losing streak and cover the number in the process, bet the Giants at -6.5 at BetUS.

Score the cash Sunday with winning football picks from World Champion Handicapper Jimmy Boyd!