BCS Playoff Part One: The Formula, Making The Cut, Seeding and Matchups
November 30, 2009
Converting the BCS to a playoff requires one to tread lightly, almost like walking on eggshells. Where you might win in one aspect, you’ll lose in another.
Really, not all that different from the current setup.
The current BCS system is set up like this, according to the official BCS Web site: “The BCS standings formula consists three components, each weighted equally: the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Harris Interactive College Football Poll and an average of six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin and Peter Wolfe).”
That’s some human error, some computer error, and a lot of different factors that quite frankly don’t delve into the wins, losses, and schedules of the teams vying for spots.
We came to this system because we scoffed about human error determining our champion. That No. 1 and No. 2 don’t have to meet to have a champion, and split titles were too common.
The BCS system was right on the spot with pitting the top two teams together. But how the commissioners put them there has been more controversial than the last system.
When I developed my idea of putting the BCS into a playoff format I took all of this into consideration when it came to a formula. Teams had to win but they also had to play quality teams. The goal, was to strengthen the schedules of top teams.
To use the 2009 Florida Gators as my example, a top-tier team would not benefit from playing Charleston Southern, Troy, and Florida International in the same season but would wins over FCS teams would not be discounted.
The Formula
I decided on a 32-team playoff system after much debate. Sixteen was my other choice. To help enforce my strengthened schedules, the regular season would be reduced to 11 weeks, plus the conference championship games. This also comes in later when scheduling is involved.
I know, only 32 teams, doesn’t the current bowl system allow for 68 teams to play?
Yes, it does. That’s 34 bowl games. One of the biggest cons of the current bowl system is that over half of the college football teams in the FBS get a trip. This 32-team format reduces teams, but only reduces the number of games by three (16 first round + eight second round + four quarterfinals + two semifinals + one title game = 31 total games).
So how do you get a spot in this 32-team field?
That’s the easiest part: no computers needed either.
There are 11 FBS conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-10, SEC, Sun Belt, and WAC). The winners of the 11 FBS conferences get an automatic spot, leaving 22 at-large bids for the remaining 108 FBS teams.
At-large bids will be determined by 1) total wins; 2) total number of wins by all opponents; 3) number of wins by defeated teams.
To illustrate this I provided a spreadsheet detailing the 2008 Top 25 after conference title week, along with the other teams that are conference champions and then teams with eight wins or more that were un-ranked. Teams with an asterisk represent a conference champion.
As you can see there are 41 available teams for the 32-team field. Eleven teams sit with eight wins, meaning teams with nine wins or more will make the field. The teams with eight wins will be decided by opponent wins and if needed the number of wins by defeated teams.
For example, Nebraska and West Virginia each finished with eight wins and 82 opponent wins. Of the four games WVU lost, those four opponents had a combined record of 48 wins, while Nebraska had just 41, putting WVU in for the final spot.
This left Ole Miss, Florida State, Nebraska, Iowa, California, Oregon State, Central Michigan, Air Force, and Navy out.
Seeding
Seeding will be determined the same way by 1) total wins; 2) total number of wins by all opponents; 3) number of teams faced that made the playoffs; 4) number of wins over playoff teams.
If all four of those are identical, tie-breakers will be determined by 1) head-to-head competition (if available); 2) total number of wins by faced playoff teams; 3) total points allowed against playoff teams.
That is illustrated in the below spreadsheet, with teams in order from 1-32.
Matchups
Figuring out plays who once the seeding is determined is the typical 32-team format. One bracket, ranked 1-32, with the top seed playing the bottom seed, and so forth.
The below spreadsheet shows the seeds again with a team’s 2008 BCS ranking in parentheses. It also shows the matchups, teams that did not make the cut along with a conference breakdown.
The List
Part One: The Formula, Making the Cut, Seeding, and Matchups
Part Two: Round-by-Round Location and BCS Rotation (Still to come!)
Part Three: T.V. Contracts and Ratings (Still to come!)
Part Four: Ticketing and Attendance (Still to come!)
Part Five: Round-by-Round Payout System (Still to come!)
Part Six: A Look At the 2009 Bracket (Still to come!)
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Bulldog Seniors Led, Young Players Followed
November 30, 2009
It happens with every coaching change, and it happened when Dan Mullen arrived at Mississipppi State. Players left. Some of them were expected to be big contributors this season. But they all had one thing in common: None of them were seniors.
All 16 of the MSU seniors recognized prior to Saturday’s Egg Bowl stuck with it and then got with Mullen’s program. It’s very important, as we know, for the young guys to buy in and build a strong foundation for the future, but it cannot be overstated how important it was for the senior Bulldogs to do the same.
Following the game, a 41-27 MSU victory to finish the year 5-7 (3-5 SEC) Mullen recalled his first team meeting in January. “I walked into a team meeting room full of hungry guys. Our seniors, we said to them, ‘This is your last opportunity to play here at Mississippi State, and what’s your legacy going to be?’ Those seniors persevered, playing one of the toughest schedules in the country. They never stopped fighting, never stopped battling. …For the rest of their lives, they get to finish their careers (as) champions.”
We heard from RB Anthony Dixon all season about how he wanted to see this team improve and go to a bowl game. Once the bowl game was out, the goal was to get that fifth win, which would be one more than last season.
“Last year we had four wins, and I was telling them to end this year with five would be an improvement. It’d at least be taking a step,” Dixon said. “I feel like we’ve improved, and I can move on saying that for one year to the next, we improved.”
The seniors seem as excited about MSU’s future as anyone, even if they won’t be a direct part of it. WR Brandon McRae said last week that he can’t wait to see the offense take off next year, and this from a guy who saw his role diminished greatly this season—thanks partly to his leg injury and partly to the emergence of freshman Chad Bumphis (above).
As much as the Bulldogs had to rely on youngsters—and I’ll back that up statistically in a moment—they owe a great deal to the senior class for leading the way. Dixon was an unstoppable force, becoming State’s career leader in every major rushing category. McRae was an unending source of encouragement for the underclassmen.
QB Tyson Lee , for all his struggles, never hung his head or stopped believing in what Mullen was preaching. And even though MSU doesn’t have a storied history at the quarterback position, it’s notable that Lee finished in the top 10 in school history in passing yardage (2,963 yards, ninth place), pass attempts (481, ninth) and pass completions (283, eighth), and he finished his career with the best completion percentage of any MSU signal caller (58.8).
OK, now back to those young fellas and some interesting numbers.
• Of MSU’s 1,732 receiving yards this season, 1,035 were by freshmen and sophomores. That’s 59.76 percent.
• Aside from Dixon’s numbers, MSU rushed for 1,340 yards, and 836 of those—or 62.39 percent—came from freshmen and sophomores. If you include Dixon’s numbers, the youngsters accounted for 30.61 percent of the rushing total.
• In the all-purpose yards category—which includes kick and punt returns, interception returns, and fumble returns—freshmen and sophomores accounted for 2,283 of MSU’s 6,545 yards, or 43.13 percent.
• Of MSU’s 817 tackles made, 312 of them came from freshmen and sophomores, or 38.19 percent.
• Of MSU’s 17 interceptions—tied with Ole Miss for most in the SEC—15 of them came from freshmen and sophomores. That’s 88.24 percent.
So there’s a sampling of the future for you. And that’s not even factoring in the many contributions of junior college transfers like WR/KR Leon Berry and DE Pernell McPhee . As Lee said following the Egg Bowl win, “It just shows what can happen in the future.”
Read more College Football news on BleacherReport.com
Oregon State vs Oregon Betting Lines
November 30, 2009
The annual Civil War rivalry between Oregon and Oregon State will carry a little more meaning this weekend as the winner earns a trip to Pasadena to represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl. Oregon State has quietly gone about their business to put themselves in position to win the conference, while Oregon has was considered the favorite after a huge win at home against USC. It will be the 113th meeting between these two schools as the road team has won the last two games after the home team won 10 straight in the series. According to our latest college football lines the Ducks are 10 point favorites and the total is set for 61 points.
Head coach Mike Riley has to be considered once again a top candidate for Coach of the Year with the job he has done for a Beaver team considered to finish in the middle of the Pac-10. OSU has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation with likely first team All-American RB Jacquizz Rodgers leading the way. Rodgers has rushed for over 1300 yards and 19 touchdowns in his sophomore year. Much of his success has came from QB Sean Canfield producing at a high rate that has prevented opposing defenses from loading the box to stop the run game. Canfield has thrown for 2,797 yards and 19 scores while completing over 70% of his passes. His favorite target is Jacquizz’s brother, James Rodgers. Although undersized for his position, James has running back skills after making the catch that has allowed him to catch 77 balls for 865 yards and eight touchdowns. The Beavers are averaging over 422 yards per game in total offense and are scoring around 32 ppg. Many of the question marks surrounding this team were on the defensive end as they returned only three starters from last season’s nine win team. While they are not a dominant unit, they have held their own for the most part this year and are quick to the ball. If you bet college football, you’ll definitely want to take advantage of this 0 match bonus from Bodog.
Oregon has been one of the hottest teams in the nation after opening the season with a loss. The 8th ranked team in the BCS can secure a match-up with the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl if they can defend their home turf. QB Jeremiah Masoli has much to do with the success of the Ducks this season. Masoli has shown that he is much more than just a running quarterback as he has thrown for 1865 yards and 14 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He is also second in rushing on the team with over 600 yards and 12 more scores on the ground. Freshman RB LaMichael James has came out of nowhere to run for over 1300 yards and 11 touchdowns after taking over starting duties in the third game of the year. James has done a nice job making Duck fans forget that highly acclaimed back LeGarrette Blount hasn’t seen the field since being suspended for his incident against Boise State. TE Ed Dickson is Masoli’s top target inside the 20 as he uses his frame extremely well to position himself for the catch that has led to a team high six touchdown receptions. The Duck defense is one of the best in the conference and is led by tackling machine Casey Matthews. They will have their hands full stopping one of the most balanced offenses in the nation on Saturday though.
Oregon State thrives in these kind of spots, but their neighbors from Eugene seem to be destined for the Rose Bowl this season. These two teams are mirror images of each other on the offensive end, but Oregon’s defense is much stronger. Except Autzen Stadium to be the loudest it has ever been with a rival in town and so much on the line. Play: Oregon -10
Check back all weekend long for more great college football picks from the top handicappers in the industry. There’s simply no better site than Betfirms to find winning football picks.
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The Charlie Weis Legacy: The Good, The Bad, And The Oh-So Ugly
November 30, 2009
Charlie Weis has been fired from Notre Dame, Urban Meyer has re-dedicated himself the University of Florida, and Bob Stoops has denied that he has any interest in becoming the next UND head coach.
While we wait for Brian Kelly’s stunning announcement that he’ll leave an undefeated, and BCS-bound Cincinatti program, to become the next Irish (and Irish!) head coach, it would do us all well to take a final look at the Charlie Weis legacy.
The Weis legacy must be remembered for the roses and the thorns. There have been exceptional highs and unfathomable lows. There have been wins, losses, outrageous disasters, and unquestioned radiance.
It most assuredly has been captivating—just ask Mark May, Chris Fowler, Tony Bernhart, and the rest of the national media that has tried to tell all of us that Notre Dame has become irrelevant.
Here’s to Charlie! Thanks for the memories, no matter how vivid and painful they’ve been.
Back-to-Back BCS
Most Notre Dame fans would triple their alumni payments to get back to the days of 9-2 and 10-2 and a pair of appearances in BCS bowl games against high profile opponents like Ohio State and LSU.
Of course, a 75-34 total score in two losses against said BSC bowl game opponents in Charlie’s first two years is not something many Irish fans want to remember. But, at least he helped get them into the bright spotlights of New Year’s Day football and made us all think, for a moment, that 1988 wasn’t really that long ago.
Stunning Losses
There is no way around shocking home losses to Syracuse, Air Force, Connecticut, and Navy, twice.
There was no way to ignore a period of nearly three years without a win over a team that finished the season with a winning record not named Navy (yes, they actually beat the Midshipmen once or twice during the Weis era).
There is no way around blowout losses to Georgia Tech (33-3), Michigan (38-0), and USC (38-0) in 2007.
There is no way around blowout losses to Boston College (17-0) and USC (38-3) in 2008.
Finally, there is no way around the fact that six-plus losses for three straight years is both unforgettable and unacceptable for the throngs of Notre Dame supporters.
Charlie, Hannah, And Their Friends
Speaking personally, I’m sick of the character assassinations. Yes, Coach Weis has been arrogant and yes, he’s proved to be unsuccessful as a head coach.
But Charlie Weis is a good man with a great heart.
Charlie Weis was loved by many of his players. Walking onto the field for his final home game locked arm in arm with his captains was a stirring and powerful display. The tears reminded us that this is an emotional game and that the intensity of relationships between coaches and players is so much a part of college football.
Beyond the field, Coach Weis poured millions of his own money and hours of his not-so-free time to build an extraordinary living center for young people of special needs. His unselfishness and complete dedication to “Hannah and Friends” will always be more important to the greater community of South Bend than anything he did on a football field.
Unfulfilled potential
Charlie Weis arrived at ND with Super Bowl rings, an offensive resume of great repute, and an ego that ran the length of the Jersey Turnpike. What we soon found out was that he also came with a tremendous work ethic and both the passion and ability to recruit the nations finest players eligible to meet the lofty Notre Dame academic standards.
Then it all went wrong.
Irish Nation, and the rest of the college football world, discovered that NFL success does not always parlay itself into on-campus brilliance. The reduced practice hours allowed and absolute need for the daily motivation of 19- and 20-year-old young men haunted Weis from day one.
With the semi-professionalism of Brady Quinn and Jeff Samardjiza, he excelled. With the immaturity and confused emotionalism of Jimmy Clausen and Brian Smith, he struggled.
Unfulfilled potential haunted Coach Weis. His preordained offensive brilliance became entrapped in youthful inexperience (2007), abject predictability (2008), and the pressure of increased need and volume (2009).
Finally, it came down to something as simple as player development. He brought in three top-ten recruiting classes full of four and five start athletes yet failed to put two CFB standards on the field over the past three years: a dependable running game and a serviceable defense.
The Hand-Off
The final component of the Weis Legacy rests in what he left behind.
When Brian Kelly (or whoever the Irish hire) arrives in town, he’ll find a depth chart full of talent and athleticism, at least two gifted linebackers, a surprisingly deep and maturing defensive line group, two dynamic wide receiver talents, a day-one NFL draft tight end, and a full stable of highly touted running backs.
Sure, Jimmy and Golden may be off to NFL riches, but Weis left more talent in the cupboard than either of his predecessors. ND will be able to win in 2010, and their schedule will certainly help the cause.
Charlie Weis did not win like he should have. He did not succeed like he needed to. He did not make Notre Dame into what he said he would.
But Charlie Weis leaves with character, integrity, an exceptional 96 percent graduation rate, and a full depth chart for his successor.
Charlie, thank you. Best of luck in the future. Enjoy turning the Browns offense into, well, an offense.
Now Brian, look, we need at least 10 wins next year, okay?
Read more College Football news on BleacherReport.com
Georgia Tech vs Clemson: A Preview of the ACC Championship Game.
November 30, 2009
It’s ACC Championship game week! It’s Georgia Tech vs Clemson for the right to go the Orange Bowl. Both teams are coming off bitterly disappointing losses to their in state arch rivals. Georgia Tech lost 30-24 to the Georgia Bulldogs and the Clemson Tigers lost to the South Carolina Gamecocks 34-17. Despite the losses the two teams have had an exciting rivalry the last decade and this should be a close competitive game.
I don’t think last Saturday’s results will play much role in the upcoming game. Clemson hasn’t shown the ability to power run this season the way Georgia did against Georgia Tech. Clemson will typically line the quarterback up in the shotgun, and run from that formation. For Clemson a stiff South Carolina defense stuffed them. Georgia Tech’s defense has been inconsistent at best, and got sliced apart by the Bulldogs run game. Neither team is likely to take advantage of the other the way the Bulldogs and and Gamecocks did. So what do I see as the keys to the game?
How does Clemson handle Georgia Tech’s triple option?
This is an interesting question. Clemson will be the first team to see Georgia Tech’s offense twice in the same season and three times in the last 14 months. Certainly that will help the Tiger’s preparation, but I also think that Yellow Jackets offense has become much more diverse in the last year. Josh Nesbitt is an improved passer and Paul Johnson is not afraid to throw it deep, specifically to all-ACC receiver Demaryius Thomas. The Tigers have looked disturbingly soft up the middle in recent weeks. Virginia and South Carolina had success running simple quarterback draws. Nesbitt suffered an apparent ankle injury against Georgia, and was out most of the 2nd quarter. When he returned he appeared around 80%-90%. He looked a step slow, but the Jackets could still move the ball. With all do respect to backup Jaybo Shaw if he plays the Jacket’s can’t win this game. He simply isn’t much of a running threat, and Clemson’s athletic ends Ricky Sapp and Da’quan Bowers can just sit on the edges.
Can Georgia Tech’s defense stop Kyle Parker, C.J Spiller, and Clemson offense?
I don’t think so. Early in the year the Clemson’s offense was C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford, and an inexperienced Parker at QB. Since then TE Michael Palmer and WR Xavier Dye have become part of the passing offense. Andre Ellington can contribute at RB resting Spiller. The Georgia Tech defense had a some decent games giving only seven points to North Carolina and nine to Virginia, but in large part this unit has been a disappointment. I’m not sold on Dave Wommack as a defensive coordinator either. I have not been impressed with his job over the last two years. I’m not convinced he can come up with game plan that can slow the Clemson team. If the Tigers can handle Yellow Jacket DE Derrick Morgan, they’ll be able to move the ball on Georgia Tech.
Ok neither team will be able to stop the other so what will be the difference?
Dabo Swinney has done a great job this year and is a very good motivator. As discussed he’s improved the Clemson offense since early in the year, but it is stilled ranked only 74th in the nation. They will score points, but they can’t match Paul Johnson’s triple option offense. Miami has been the only team this season that’s really slowed the Georgia Tech offense for a whole game. Paul Johnson is a master at in-game adjustments, and has never lost two games in row while at Georgia Tech. The Jacket’s beat every team they lost to last year except LSU whom they didn’t play. If you had success against him once he usually finds something the next time around. He hasn’t lost to Clemson, but the Tigers have given Georgia Tech some very tough games. I give Paul Johnson the edge over Dabo Swinney in the coaching department and that will be the difference.
Throw it all out the window if Nesbitt can’t go or is less than 80% for some reason. Let’s assume Josh Nesbitt is fairly healthy which reports Monday say he is.
I like the Jackets in a moderately high scoring affair 31-27.
This article is also featured at All About Sports .
Read more College Football news on BleacherReport.com
How likely is an Alabama-Florida rematch?
November 30, 2009
As you might expect, the “what if?” question is circulating pretty rapidly among Alabama and Florida fans right now.
In short, what happens if Alabama and Florida play a classic game that goes down to the final minutes and Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game?
According to Brad Edwards, ESPN’s BCS expert, a rematch between Alabama and Florida in the BCS National Championship Game isn’t likely.
He thinks TCU would have the best chance in that scenario to slip into the BCS National Championship Game followed by Cincinnati, provided the Bearcats beat Pittsburgh. Edwards thinks the odds are against a one-loss SEC team hurdling an unbeaten TCU or an unbeaten Cincinnati into one of those top two spots in the final BCS standings.
But he’s also not completely ruling it out.
If it does happen, he thinks a one-loss Florida team would have a better chance than a one-loss Alabama team.
The key would be the two human polls, because Edwards thinks a one-loss Florida team would still be ranked ahead of TCU in the computers. That means TCU would need to be ahead of Florida on about two-thirds of the human ballots to make up the difference.
Here’s the other thing to consider: Can you imagine being either Alabama or Florida and making it through the season unscathed in the SEC and then winning the championship game against an unbeaten team … and then turning around a month later and having to play that same team again?
Something tells me that the team that wins this weekend in Atlanta wouldn’t be too keen on that scenario.
Dismissing Candidates: Chris Petersen
November 30, 2009
Now that Charlie Weis is out for good at Notre Dame the Irish will turn to their coaching search. Finding a successor is going to be tough for AD Jeff Swarbrick as Urban Meyer was the first to say no and today top target Bob Stoops turned down the Irish within two hours of the job opening up.
Until the coaching hire is done we’ll spend some time doing the opposite of what every other website out there is doing. Here at ITB we’ll tell you why the guy you just suggested isn’t the right man for the job. We’ll start with a guy in Chris Petersen who is a hot commodity at Boise State University and work our way through Brian Kelly, Butch Davis, Gary Patterson and should it come down to it we’ll tackle Brian Billick and Jon Gruden as well.
Winning ball games, academics, recruiting nationally are the three most critical areas to Irish fans. While they vary in their priority to fans they are the three spots that they’ll agree matter. Lets examine our list of guys taking this into account.
Here’s the first edition of “Dismissing Candidates”
Chris Petersen
Winning Ball Games
The man no doubt has won ball games. He’s posted back to back undefeated seasons and the 2006 campaign as well, beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl for his first bowl win. The brains behind Dan Hawkins’ promotion to Colorado is 35-4 overall in four seasons of leading the Broncos. He’s won games against the likes of Oregon, OU and Hawaii during his tenure so it appears his win loss record is solid. However he is 1-2 in bowl’s including losing to an unranked ECU team in 2007.
Petersen’s been the product of bad football as he’s built his gaudy record by defeating just three ranked opponents; Oregon twice and Oklahoma in the Fiesta. During his tenure he’s been the underdog just five times while his Broncos have been a double digit favorite some 31 TIMES! The point is Petersen’s never been in a pressure cooker where every game is a battle. If ND was playing the Boise State schedule Weis would probably still have a job.
Read more for the rest of why Chris Petersen isn’t the choice for ND
Ohio vs Central Michigan Football Spread
November 30, 2009
Get serious about betting college football and check out the 0 BONUS from Betus. The Mid American Championship game will be played this Friday night at 8:00 pm ET, where Ohio (9-3) will do battle with Central Michigan (10-2). This will be the second time in four years the Bobcats have won the East division, and coach Frank Solich is getting the team geared up for their first ten win season since 1968. The Chippewas have made their own history this year with their first unbeaten and untied MAC regular season, with their only two losses coming to Arizona and Boston College. Our college football odds have Central Michigan as the 10.5 point favorites.
Head Coach Butch Jones has done a great job against his MAC opponents, going 21-3 in his tenure thus far. He runs a balanced offense that’s put up 52 td’s and almost 420 ypg. Dan LeFevour has been a great leader for them at the QB position. In his senior campaign he’s completed 71% of his passes for twenty five td’s and 2788 yards. What’s more impressive is his fourteen rushing scores, and that he leads the team with 650 rushing yards. With his arm and legs he accounts for 39 of the 52 td’s, and he’s made good decisions this year limiting himself to five interceptions. In their last regular season game, LeFevour threw for 255 yards and three scores with no interceptions, and is playing at the top of his game. His top target is Antonio Brown, who has 89 catches this year for 954 yards and nine scores, and is the 4th leading rusher with another 319 yards and two scores. He’s proven himself a dangerous return man as well, with 820 yards and 2 scores to his credit. The defense of the Chippewas has been overlooked due to the success on the other side of the ball, but they have played well holding foes to 22 scores and 331 ypg and posting one shutout.
While Central Michigan has a great QB, Ohio doesn’t have anything to complain about in that department either. Theo Scott saved the best for last as the Bobcats beat Temple 35-17. He put on a clinic, throwing for a career high 324 yards and three scores with no interceptions, completing 17-21 passes. He also contributed two rushing td’s and led the unit with 69 yards on the ground. It was easily his best performance of the season, where’s his completing under 60% of his attempts and thrown ten interceptions. A big reason the Bobcats are the underdog in the championship game is their reliance on the passing attack. Of their 30 td’s, 21 have come through the air, and Scott leads all rushers with 3 running scores on the year. The defense allowed 255 yards on the ground last week and will need to do much better to outscore a tougher opponent. A highlight has been the takeaways, where the defense has posted 35 on the year for a +14 turnover ratio.
Frank Solich and crew must post a perfect offensive performance and force turnovers to stand a chance against Central Michigan. If the defense can’t shut down the run, don’t look for them to be able to come away with a victory. The Chippewas own the overall series 19-4-2 and, with a superior offense and defense, should have no problems defeating the Bobcats and the spread. For more winning college football picks, look no further than Betfirms. They’ve got all the expert football picks!
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College Football Week 15 Power Rankings
November 30, 2009
The top teams had some very close games this past weekend, but all of them came out unscathed. The college football predictions are now starting to look clearer as far as which team will get to each bowl game, but there is still one week of football left to play and a whole lot can happen in one week. Get an extra 0 to bet on football when you signup at BetUS and make an initial deposit of 0 or more.
- Florida- The Gators were the only top three team that wasn’t threatened at all on Saturday. The offense looks to be coming together and the defense has been on top of its game for most of the season. The big clash with Alabama occurs this Saturday.
- Texas- Colt McCoy and the Longhorns had to battle against their rivals, but they ended up winning a shootout. McCoy is starting to look like a Heisman contender again and this team looks very dangerous. Nebraska is all that stands between them and a chance at the title.
- Alabama- The Iron Bowl was a real dog fight, but the Tide finally came back at the end and nipped Auburn 26-21. This Alabama defense has consistently been very good, and they’ll need to be just that again this coming week if they expect to beat Florida.
- TCU- The Horned Frogs weren’t tested a bit on Saturday. They still have an outside shot at making the BCS title game if Texas loses to Nebraska. More than likely TCU will be heading to a marquee match up in one of the other BCS games.
- Cincinnati- The Bearcats beat Illinois behind Tony Pike’s school record 6 touchdown passes. The defense is starting to struggle and that has to be a real concern for Brian Kelly. The showdown in Pittsburgh should be a great one this Saturday.
- Boise State- Boise State didn’t have much trouble at all with Nevada last Friday. Nevada got their yards running, but Boise was balanced on offense and controlled the game. Boise State has a chance for a Fiesta Bowl berth if things fall correctly.
- Oregon- The Ducks have a Thursday night showdown with their in-state rivals the Oregon State Beavers. This game is even bigger than normal, as the winner will play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. The college football odds show that Oregon is a 9.5 point favorite in this one.
- Ohio State- The defense is as good as they come, and Pryor seems to be maturing. The conservative nature of the Buckeyes can be maddening for fans, but it has done pretty well for them of late.
- Iowa- The Hawkeyes will probably have quarterback Ricky Stanzi back for their bowl game, and they just might sneak into the BCS.
- Georgia Tech- Georgia Tech was the hunted this year and Georgia did indeed win as the underdog in their rivalry. Josh Nesbitt’s early injury put them behind the eight ball. The match up with Clemson should be very interesting.
- Virginia Tech- The Hokies have looked much better of late and finally have that strong running game rolling along with their potent defense.
- Oregon State- The Beavers have their chance to head to the Rose Bowl with a win over Oregon, but they’ll have to do it in Eugene.
- Penn State- The Nittany Lions have looked better of late, but they did benefit from a very easy schedule, which will likely keep them out of the BCS.
- Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh showed a lot of fight in their loss to West Virginia, but they came up just short. This weekend they’ll have a chance to knock off Cincinnati and share the Big East title.
- Miami- The Hurricanes won in impressive fashion over South Florida Saturday and locked up at least a nine win season.
- LSU- The Tigers had a nice comeback to get the Ole Miss disaster out of their minds.
- Brigham Young- A huge rivalry victory over Utah did a lot to make this a successful season for the Cougars.
- Nebraska- This may be a little high for Nebraska if they don’t play better than last weekend, but this team has potential with its amazing defense.
- California- The Golden Bears avoided a terrible late season collapse this year.
- USC- The Trojans beat rival UCLA and ruffled some feathers in the process.
- Houston- Case Keenum’s numbers are absolutely amazing.
- Stanford- Saturday might have finished Charlie Weis and won Gerhart the Heisman.
- West Virginia- Bill Stewart got a signature win last week against the the hated Panthers.
- Oklahoma State- The Cowboys were dismantled in ugly fashion Saturday.
- Clemson- Spiller and the Tigers are still a dangerous team.
My college football picks have been on fire of late. I am now 19-6 in my last 25 games. The slate may be smaller this coming weekend, but there is definitely some value out there. Check out my premium packages and subscriptions for winners throughout the entire week!
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- Week 13 College Football Power Rankings
- College Football Power Rankings: Week 7
- College Football Power Rankings – Week 6
Could Matt Ryan be done for the year?
November 30, 2009
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been ruled out for Atlanta’s game with the Eagles this Sunday at the Georgia Dome. The newspaper also reports that Ryan has suffered a turf toe injury and that he’ll be re-evaluated next week.
Depending on what grade the injury is, Ryan could miss anywhere from 1-2 weeks to 4-6 weeks. If he needs surgery, chances are he’ll be placed on injured reserve and he’ll miss the rest of the season. If he can avoid surgery, there’s a chance he could play in the postseason if the Falcons are lucky enough to make it that far.
I say “lucky” because not only is Ryan expected to miss significant time, but Michael Turner (who shouldn’t have been rushed back so soon after suffering a high ankle sprain) could as well. Turner hasn’t been ruled out for Sunday yet, but it’s probably unlikely that he’ll play after he re-injured his ankle (in a different spot this time) against the Bucs. Both Ryan and Turner missed most of Atlanta’s come-from-behind victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday, as did starting offensive linemen Sam Baker and Harvey Dahl. Chris Redman will start in Ryan’s place this Sunday, while Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling will receive extended carries in Turner’s absence. There have been no reports on Dahl and Baker’s status for Week 13.
With homes against the Eagles and Saints coming up, the Falcons could see their playoff hopes crushed over the next two weeks. They have a relatively light schedule down the stretch (at. Jets, vs. Bills, at. Bucs), but they’ll need to win one of the next two games (preferably against the Eagles, who are also fighting for a Wild Card spot in the NFC) to even have a shot at making the postseason.
Once he got into a rhythm, Redman looked good in the Falcons’ win on Sunday, but that was also against a Tampa defense that has struggled all season. It’ll be a different story against the Eagles and Saints, two teams that feast on turnovers and sacks.
Nothing is final yet; Ryan could miss just this week and be back at practice next Wednesday. But if the injury is serious and Ryan is lost for the year, Atlanta’s playoff hopes rest on Redman’s shoulders. If he can play as well as he did on the Falcons’ final drive against Tampa, Atlanta still has a shot. But considering their pass defense is atrocious and the offense will be limited with Redman under center, the Falcons are in an undesirable situation.