2009 Pro Football Predictions
August 28, 2009
The NFL season is approaching fast and this is great time to consider what could materialize this season on the gridiron. Future betting lines are in place for each team. A year ago I looked at the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were projected for 9 wins, and wrote: The Steelers had 10 wins in 2007 with the best defense. The offense was already decent (17th overall, 3rd in rushing), with strong balance, and they add Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall and Texas WR Limas Sweed. Mendenhall was a bargain and gives them a power back to go along with speedy RB Willie Parker.
The Pittsburgh Steelers possess a terrific QB in Ben Roethlisberger, plus wide receivers Hines Ward and past Buckeye speedster Santonio Holmes. They were dominant at home with a mark of 7-2 giving up just 13.8 ppg and again look like the best team in the AFC North. Over 9 victories. What happened: They went 12-4 on the way to yet another Super Bowl title.
For 2009 the Patriots are seeing their over/under set at 12 wins, while the Giants and Chargers are at 10 . Several components come into play when evaluating futures, in addition to offseason transactions. With that in mind, let s take a evaluate moves that took occurred with certain teams and how that might effect their status for the current futures odds.
Carolina (over/under 8.5 wins): Everyone recalls the bad playoff loss, when Jake Delhomme threw 5 interceptions in a 33-13 home loss to the Cardinals. What they forget is that Carolina was a superior team, 12-4 in the regular season, gaining the second highest playoff seed. They have balance on offense, with a strong offensive line and a power running back tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jon Stewart.
Plus, Carolina gave Jake Delhomme a five year contract worth more than $30 million to take his mind off any contract negotiations. When Delhomme is needed to throw more than thirty passes, Carolina gone just 7-22, so Jon Fox loves offensive balance. The defense is in good shape after bringing back Julius Peppers. The team also re-signed cornerback Chris Gamble and offensive tackle Jordan Gross to multimillion-dollar deals prior to them becoming high-level free agents. Those moves are often overlooked when measuring a team s offseason activity. The Panthers look very good again; take Over 8.5 wins.
Chicago (over/under 8 victories): All the buzz has been on new quarterback Jay Cutler, a Pro Bowler who is just what the Bears sought after. While QB is the most important position, he can t do it alone. And I see weakness all over the roster for the Chicago Bears (including with their coaching staff).
Chicago was 24th in running the ball last year, with no ground game and a weak offensive line. And who will Cutler have to catch the ball? Chicago is banking on hefty output from several unproven guys at pass catcher in 2009. Earl Bennett is on the first team with zero NFL receptions, first-year guys Juaquin Iglesias and Johnny Knox are being relied upon, leaving starter Devin Hester and veteran slot receiver Rashied Davis as the only certain pass catchers. And Brandon Rideau could figure in the mix, but he has nearly no NFL experience.
On defense, the Bears ranked 21st overall and 30th in pass defense in 2008, giving up a staggering 241 yards passing per game. DT Tommie Harris left knee makes you wonder what the Bears were thinking when they signed him to a contract extension last summer. Lovie Smith and the general manager have done a bad job on roster decisions, the Bears didn t have a draft pick until the third round and don t have a first-round pick in the 2010 draft. The Cutler euphoria could disappear fast after a few early losses. Under 8 wins.
New England Patriots (over/under 12 wins): So which Patriots team is it going to be this year? The unstoppable team of 2007, or the injury-plagued group of 2008? Even without Tom Brady, they won 11 games last season, giving them 13.5 wins per year over their last two. The offense is rich with talent and all indications are that Brady is back at full strength.
The defense has tremendous depth in the secondary, adding three 2nd and 3rd round picks, including second rounders safety Patrick Chung (Oregon) and CB Darius Butler (UConn). The Patriots were the second best scoring offense in the AFC in 2008, even without the 2007 NFL MVP and his record 50 TDs. Have to consider the division isn’t going to be as good, as Miami won t sneak up on teams and everything went their way, plus the Jets have a rookie coach and a rookie QB. The schedule is fairly easy, with the only difficult away games at Indy and the Saints in November. Over 12 wins is the better bet.
